Coinbase and Competing Platforms Set to Transform Prediction Markets
Coinbase, the leading cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, is gearing up to introduce prediction markets alongside tokenized equities, while Gemini has received the green light from regulators. Additionally, Kalshi and Crypto.com have established a coalition aimed at enhancing the prediction market space. Binance’s Changpeng Zhao is targeting a user base of 220 million through BNB Chain. The competition among major players in the $15 billion prediction market sector has officially commenced.
Coinbase Poised to Announce New Offerings
Reports indicate that Coinbase is set to make a formal announcement regarding prediction markets and tokenized equity services during a showcase event scheduled for December 17. Notably, these tokenized stock offerings will be developed internally rather than through external partnerships. Although Coinbase executives have previously shown interest in this area, no official communications had been made until now. Recently, anticipation has grown as hints of upcoming features have circulated on social media platform X. A spokesperson for Coinbase refrained from discussing specifics but encouraged audiences to watch the livestream on December 17 for updates on new products.
This initiative aligns with Coinbase’s broader strategy of becoming an “everything app,” aiming to provide traders with access to a diverse array of assets and markets to compete with other exchanges that are expanding their services. Robinhood, for instance, launched Kalshi’s prediction market offerings earlier this year, while both Robinhood and Kraken provide tokenized US stocks and ETFs to customers outside the U.S. The market for tokenized equities is experiencing rapid growth, evidenced by a 32% increase in monthly transfer volume, bringing it to $1.45 billion.
New Coalition for Prediction Markets Formed
On the same day, Kalshi and Crypto.com announced the establishment of the Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM), a national alliance comprising various prediction market operators. Founding members include Coinbase, Robinhood, and sports betting platform Underdog. Matt David, an executive board member of CPM, stressed the importance of a unified industry voice as the U.S. emerges as a significant player in the prediction markets sector.
The coalition’s primary goals include reinforcing the federal framework governing prediction markets, implementing nationwide integrity standards to mitigate insider trading, and combating excessive regulatory actions at the state level. Sara Slane, head of corporate development at Kalshi and a coalition executive, highlighted the years of collaboration with the CFTC to ensure that prediction markets adhere to robust federal safeguards that deter insider trading, protect consumers, and maintain transparency. The coalition has indicated that additional companies are currently in discussions to join.
Gemini Secures Approval, Shares Rise Significantly
Gemini, co-founded by the Winklevoss twins, is also making strides in the prediction market arena. Gemini Space Station Inc. has received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate a derivatives exchange. This authorization enables Gemini to offer event contract trading services to its U.S. clientele via its website and mobile application. In its IPO regulatory filings, Gemini had identified prediction markets related to economic, financial, political, and sports forecasts as areas of interest. Following the announcement of regulatory approval, Gemini’s shares jumped by as much as 28% in after-hours trading.
This approval is part of a series of regulatory actions under Acting Chairman Caroline Pham, who has positioned herself as an advocate for the digital assets sector, taking steps to promote crypto trading on CFTC-regulated platforms. Pham also revealed that Tyler Winklevoss will join the agency’s CEO Innovation Council, which will comprise notable figures including Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan and CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy.
Changpeng Zhao Expands Prediction Market Ventures
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) is also venturing into the prediction market landscape. On December 4, CZ announced via social media that a new prediction market would soon be launched on the BNB Chain. A unique aspect of this platform is its ability to generate yield on user funds while awaiting event outcomes. The initiative is backed by YZiLabs (formerly known as Binance Labs), which manages over $10 billion in assets and has invested in more than 300 projects globally. Earlier, Trust Wallet, owned by CZ, introduced its Predictions feature, with Myriad as the first integration partner, allowing users to place bets on various topics, including politics and sports, through the app. Trust Wallet boasts a user base of 220 million.
BNB Chain also integrated with Polymarket in October, and Opinion Labs, a prediction market provider supported by YZiLabs, launched its mainnet. Opinion Labs secured significant funding during Binance Blockchain Week and completed a $5 million seed funding round in Q1 2025, led by YZiLabs with contributions from Animoca Ventures and Amber Group.
In a related development, the Trump Media & Technology Group, associated with former President Donald Trump, is entering the prediction market space with its upcoming platform, “Truth Predict,” which will operate on its Truth Social network. Users will have the opportunity to bet on a range of events, including political elections and inflation changes.
The Competitive Landscape of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have gained substantial traction since a federal court lifted the ban on election betting last year. Weekly trading volumes on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have surpassed previous records, even exceeding levels seen during last year’s U.S. presidential election. Investor interest in this sector is on the rise, with Kalshi’s valuation more than doubling to $11 billion following its latest funding round. Polymarket is reportedly seeking to raise funds at a valuation of up to $15 billion.
Traditional financial exchanges such as CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange are also exploring potential entry into this burgeoning market. The monthly transfer volume for tokenized equities has surged by 32% over the past month, reaching $1.45 billion. However, regulatory hurdles remain a significant concern. Kalshi initiated legal action in October against New York’s gaming commission, alleging overreach in its attempts to regulate sports betting activities that should fall under federal jurisdiction. In the U.S., sports betting remains illegal in several states, and legal disputes concerning the validity of prediction markets are increasing.
As Coinbase, Gemini, Binance’s BNB Chain, and the newly formed industry coalition vie for dominance, the competition for the lucrative $15 billion prediction market sector is intensifying.
